The World is Ending: Hand Out Leaflets

When I found this leaflet from the Jehovah’s Witnesses left at our front door and unrolled it to read the message, I just felt so sad for the people who live with this burden that the world is going to end. What a drag, seriously. If I believed the world was going to end I would not be handing out leaflets warning people. I know how selfish not to let people know. Instead I’d be spending the time doing the things I love. Maybe the folks that left this leaflet love handing out paper? Or maybe it’s a membership drive? (In past “end” years membership surged, go figure.)

The artwork of the leaflet reminds me of the supremely silly Gathering Storm ad (fear, fear, fear). At least Colbert spoofed it really well (‘like watching the 700 Club and the Weather channel…’).

The Montlake Bridge and the Statue of Lenin in Fremont

Photos we took of one of the towers of the Montlake Bridge and the Statue of Lenin in Fremont.

Thunder Creek Hike

The Thunder Creek trail was our first hike of the season. We went about 15 miles roundtrip starting at the Colonial Creek campground (near the amphitheater – map location) and reached Tricouni Camp and then turned around. It took us about 7 hours to do that with a half hour lunch break and a couple of stops to talk to people (especially the people with the llamas!). Actually there really weren’t that many people on the trail and almost everyone we saw was hiking in the reverse direction coming out from days of camping.

The trail is a relatively flat. It was mostly in shade and cool at least for this day in May. We saw no snow. During the hike there are few times you actually get close to the river. If you can wait, there are some good picnic spots along the river about 5.5 miles in from Colonial Creek.

The Drunkard’s Walk

Recently, we both finished reading The Drunkard’s Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives by Leonard Mlodinow. It is a thought provoking book about how much randomness impacts our lives and how we often attribute its effects to a host of other causes. The book was a bit difficult at times to understand and the misprints (in our particular edition) didn’t help.

There are just two concepts I’ll point out form the book (for now). The first is a calculation doctors were asked to make of breast cancer. In a nutshell the question is what is the probability that an asymptomatic woman between the ages of 40 and 50 who has a positive mammogram actually has breast cancer if 7% of mammograms show cancer when there is none, the actual incidence is 0.8%, and the false-negative rate is 10%. 

This problem is discussed in Chapter 6 False Positives and Positive Fallacies. After many hours we were able to calculate that a positive mammogram is due to cancer in only about 9 percent of the cases. I suppose it was an exercise left to the reader. The 9% comes from the following logic (we believe). The sample space of (test, actual) is (Postive,P), (P,Negative), (N,N), (N,P). Let’s say 1,000 women is the sample group size. (P,N) = 7% of 1,000 or 70. (P,P) = 0.8% - 10% of 0.8% of 1,000 or 7.2. (The false-negative rate means that if 0.8% out of 1,000 or 8 have it, there will be 10% of those or 0.8 that are (N,P)). (N,P) = 0.8. So 7.2/(7.2 + 70) = 9%.

The second concept is Pascal’s Triangle. I never had been exposed to this before and found it fascinating and an easy way to calculate how many ways to select a subset of items from a larger set where order of the items is not important. 

Suppose you want to know how many ways to extract a subset of 4 items from a total set of 6 items. Just go to 7th row (or the 6th row if you start counting from the top at zero). Starting at the left square you find there is 1 way to arrange 0 items of 6 total, 6 ways to arrange 1 item, 15 ways to arrange 2 items, 20 ways to arrange 3 items, and 15 ways to arrange 4. So the answer is 15. This is also called a “n choose k” problem – how to find how many combinations thare are of n items taken k at a time. If you don’t want to write out the Pascal’s Triangle for larger number you can use the binomial coefficent (which the Pascal Triangle entries represent). The binomial coefficient is n! / (k! (n-k)!). So for the problem above we have 6! / (4! (6-4)!) = 6! / (4! 2!) = 6*5 * 4! / (4! * 2!) = 15.

Aspidistra elatior Flower

Cast iron plant with flower.

I was dividing a cast iron plant (Aspidistra elatior) that has been in the ground for many years with the aim of giving a clump to some friends. I was surprised to see what I think is the flower (pre-bloom or post-bloom?)– having never observed the flower in all these years. Compare the above photo of what I observed with a Curtis’s Botanical Magazine image here.

2021-06-25 Update

The cast iron plant in question is a large clump on the north side of our house, in deep shade. It grows outside readily in Seattle weather and doesn't get any water other than rain.

Recently, I wanted to use cast iron plant in a pot as an accent in another part of our yard. I went to the local nursery and were shocked. For a few measly stalks of the plant they wanted upwards of 80 dollars. I realized that we just need to take a bit of our own clump. While digging up a clump this time, I got a better picture of the flower in bloom.

The report Subterranean flowers of Aspidistra elatior are mainly pollinated by not terrestrial amphipods but fungus gnats has some great photos of flowers as well.

Cast iron plant flower with hazelnut shells.

 

Cast iron plant flower with Arisarum proboscideum – Mouse Tail Arum – leaves.

The Salad Garden

After several weeks we are finally able to start making salads from our salad garden. We planted Gourmet Mesclun Salad / Asian Baby Leaf and Signature Salads / California Spicy Greens from Renee’s Seeds. So far, we are happy with the results. We’ll see how long we can keep harvesting it.

Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Happiness: American Art from the Yale University Art Gallery

The exhibit Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Happiness is at the Seattle Art Museum from February 26 – May 25, 2009. On display are hundreds items from the Yale University Gallery renowned collections of American art. The time period the exhibit covers is roughly the late 17th century to the late 19th century.

One of the “stars” of the show is the artist John Trumbull (1756 – 1843) whose painting The Declaration of Independence is an iconic American image. Trumbull’s paintings of key historic events of the late 18th hundred and particularly of George Washington alone could have been the basis of show themselves. Other standouts were the works by Thomas Eakins (1844 – 1916) including the striking rower depicted in John Biglin in a Single Scull (1874), the painting by Winslow Homer (1836-1910) Old Mill (The Morning Bell) (1871), and the photograph of the moon produced in 1864 by George Frederic Barker (1835 – 1910).

There were a couple of the challenges in viewing this exhibit. First, was its size. It is an ambitious presentation, too much to grasp in one viewing if you are going to stop and ponder the works. With pottery, glass, furniture, painting, photography as well as other media it can be a bit bewildering to keep focused. The second challenge with this exhibit is to set your expectation for a history lesson – more like different pages torn from a history book. Critical events in American history are rendered in different media. If you have a good grasp of American history then much of the exhibit might be “oh yeah, I remember that”. Else, you’ll be scratching your head trying to recall the significance of this or that event. By the time we got to prints on the subject of the Transcontinental Railroad and the large landscape paintings of the west by Albert Bierstadt (1830 – 1902) toward the end of the exhibit, we were a bit overwhelmed and couldn’t really appreciate them fully.

Overall, as a sampling of 200 or so years of American Art the exhibit is successful. But as a viewer you have to work hard to connect the dots in American history and make sense of it all. Try to view the exhibit in two or more visits if you can.

The Italian connection - there’s always one if you look, right? This time it was a miniature portrait by Trumbull of Giuseppe Ceracchi (1751 – 1801) – an Italian sculpture who came to the United States looking for commissions. Trumbull painted Ceracchi’s portrait as part of a series of small portraits used as studies for paintings. We are not sure if Ceracchi ended up in any of Trumbull’s large paintings, but Ceracchi did end up on the guillotine.

Spinning at LA Fitness in Ballard

As part of our proactive fitness quest this spring Travelmarx has joined LA Fitness in Ballard at 1416 NW Ballard Way. Yes we know, it’s the happening club this side of the ship canal and like lemmings we jumped on board.

One of the things we’ve been taking advantage of is spin class (called cycle zone) at 5:45am weekday mornings. First, getting up at 5:00am to get to the class is not as bad as it sounds provided you go to bed early and keeping in mind what a friend who told us: "deliver the body". Second, after the class you feel really good. The rest of the day is a breeze. The 50+ minutes of instructor-led “riding” generates a lot of sweat and huffing and puffing.

The bikes used are Keiser M3 bikes and they are very nice to spin on. You can spin with the same shoes that you use to work out in or you can use cycling shoes (the pedals of the bikes are SPD – or Shimano Pedaling Dynamics - compatible). The instructors so far for the spin classes (we’ve had four different ones) have been great.



Overall impressions of the Ballard / LA Fitness? The club facilities are good but there are a number of opportunities for improvement:

- The management is, well to be kind, a bit lacking. Basically, it seems kids are running the shop and that would be kids with not much experience in customer service. It doesn’t help that all decisions seem to have to come from corporate headquarters. Recently, a sign at the front desk informed members in day-glo magic marker colors that the club was out of Q-Tips and Kleenex and was waiting for a shipment. Now Q-Tips and Kleenex aren’t that critical, but why not just run to Fred Meyer around the corner and buy some as a stop gap measure? Suggestion: hire some seasoned staff.

- Joining and figuring out what rate you are going to pay varies by the day if not hour. I got one rate on a Saturday when I joined. Then, I got called Sunday to inform me there was a mistake and that my initiation fee and monthly rate would be something different – I okayed it. But, nothing got changed and I’m still at the first rate. Friends all have different plans and rates – it seems. Suggestion: simplify the membership process and make it less variable.

- The men’s locker room shower flower is always wet. No mats or anything to keep your feet out of the standing water. Suggestion: put mats down.

- There are not enough clocks on the walls. Suggestion: put some more clocks on the wall. [July 2009 - they have added more clocks. It took a while for them to read the correct time, but they are there. Thanks.]

- The placement of hand towel bins for storage and return are not where you would naturally place them for a club like this. No one thought about the layout. Often they are supplied with larger bath towels when you only want a small hand towel. Suggestion: install a few more hand towel bins, specifically more nearer to where you enter/leave the club by the front desk. [July 2009 - more locations of hand towels have been added. It's better now. Thanks.]

- The spin room doesn’t have good air circulation. Suggestion: install some fans. [July 2009 - it's hit or miss. Sometimes the air conditioner works great and sometimes it doesn't. It's better overall I think.]

- Spray bottles to clean down machines and paper towels are woefully lacking. Suggestion: Place more spray bottles about.

[See comments for more info.]